The Bitcoin halving event, a pivotal occurrence, is scheduled for April, 19 2024<\/a>. This quadrennial event will reduce the block subsidy for Bitcoin miners from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC, thereby halving the reward that miners receive for their efforts. Such events have historically led to profound shifts in the mining landscape, potentially influencing various economic and operational facets of Bitcoin mining.<\/p>\n After the halving, the immediate impact is a considerable decrease in miner revenue due to the reduced block subsidy. This could lead to a decline in the hashrate as less efficient miners may turn unprofitable and exit the network. Luxor\u2019s Hashrate Index<\/a> Research Team projects about 3-7% of Bitcoin\u2019s hashrate<\/a> could go offline if Bitcoin\u2019s price maintains its current level. However, if prices fall, up to 16% of the hashrate could become economically unviable, depending on the trajectory of Bitcoin prices and transaction fees post-halving.<\/p>\n The hashrate, a critical security measure for Bitcoin, might adjust along with difficulty levels to align with the new economic realities. Luxor\u2019s analysis suggests different scenarios where the network’s hashrate could end up ranging from 639 EH\/s to 674 EH\/s by year’s end, reflecting adjustments to the new earning potential post-halving.<\/p>\n Post-halving, the profitability of different ASIC models will become crucial as the mining reward drops. Lower rewards mean that only the most efficient machines will be able to operate profitably if the price of Bitcoin does not see a significant increase. For instance, according to Luxor\u2019s projections, next-generation ASICs like the S19 XP and M30S++ might have breakeven power costs ranging from $0.07\/kWh to $0.15\/kWh, depending on post-Halving hashprice<\/a>.<\/p>\n This shift in profitability will likely lead to a repricing of ASIC machines. Historical data suggests that ASIC prices are highly correlated with hashprice; therefore, the anticipated reduction in hashprice will prompt a downward adjustment in ASIC values. This will particularly impact older and less efficient models, potentially accelerating their phase-out from the market.<\/p>\nEconomic Outlook and Market Predictions<\/h2>\n
ASIC Pricing and Breakeven Points<\/h2>\n
The Role of Custom ASIC Firmware Post-Halving<\/h2>\n