Seeing Bitcoin’s price rally as Donald Trump takes the lead on the world\u2019s largest prediction market, Polymarket<\/a>, made me do some research on what Polymarket is and who uses it. <\/p>\n And now I have to say \u2014 I believe that Polymarket leans pro-Trump. We need to account for that bias, and here\u2019s why.<\/p>\n Let’s look at some data. Polymarket shows Trump surging to a massive 28% lead<\/a> over Harris. Another prediction marketplace, Kalshi<\/a>, also shows Trump leading by 18%. Meanwhile, most other polls<\/a> have a tight race. This huge skew makes no sense – unless Polymarket’s user base is disproportionately pro-Trump.<\/p>\n <\/a><\/p><\/div>\n Which it is. Polymarket only allows crypto betting and blocks US users. This filters its audience toward offshore Bitcoin and crypto enthusiasts or US crypto users who use VPNs, and studies show that crypto users tend to lean conservative. <\/p>\n And with Trump pledging to Implement crypto-friendly policies, he is a no-brainer for Bitcoin and crypto users. <\/p>\n